Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 33,197
2 Florida 30,267
3 Mississippi 29,359
4 Arizona 28,308
5 Alabama 27,248
6 Georgia 25,305
7 South Carolina 24,454
8 Tennessee 23,894
9 Nevada 23,429
10 Texas 23,121
11 New York 22,890
12 Iowa 22,509
13 New Jersey 22,117
14 Arkansas 21,877
15 Rhode Island 21,326
16 District of Columbia 20,350
17 Illinois 20,141
18 Idaho 19,283
19 California 18,883
20 Nebraska 18,856
21 Maryland 18,812
22 Delaware 18,801
23 North Dakota 18,208
24 Massachusetts 17,839
25 South Dakota 17,411
26 Utah 17,287
27 North Carolina 17,081
28 Oklahoma 16,440
29 Kansas 16,434
30 Missouri 15,784
31 Indiana 15,287
32 Connecticut 15,084
33 Wisconsin 15,067
34 Virginia 15,043
35 Minnesota 14,479
36 Kentucky 12,730
37 New Mexico 12,485
38 Michigan 11,914
39 Pennsylvania 11,341
40 Ohio 11,291
41 Puerto Rico 11,116
42 Washington 10,643
43 Colorado 10,419
44 Alaska 9,117
45 Montana 7,867
46 Wyoming 7,089
47 Hawaii 7,062
48 Oregon 6,722
49 West Virginia 6,506
50 New Hampshire 5,511
51 Maine 3,506
52 Vermont 2,650

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 235
2 Kansas 209
3 South Dakota 193
4 Missouri 178
5 Tennessee 160
6 Oklahoma 157
7 Arkansas 147
8 Delaware 142
9 Iowa 140
10 Louisiana 140
11 Wisconsin 126
12 Alabama 122
13 Nebraska 115
14 Illinois 114
15 Utah 110
16 Rhode Island 109
17 Georgia 108
18 Idaho 107
19 Nevada 106
20 Puerto Rico 105
21 South Carolina 104
22 Virginia 104
23 Minnesota 102
24 Mississippi 100
25 Florida 96
26 North Carolina 96
27 Indiana 90
28 Maryland 89
29 California 84
30 Texas 82
31 Hawaii 78
32 Montana 72
33 Alaska 71
34 West Virginia 69
35 Kentucky 64
36 Ohio 62
37 District of Columbia 58
38 Michigan 57
39 Wyoming 55
40 Washington 50
41 Pennsylvania 49
42 Oregon 39
43 Connecticut 38
44 Colorado 37
45 Massachusetts 37
46 New Jersey 34
47 New York 31
48 Arizona 24
49 New Mexico 21
50 New Hampshire 17
51 Maine 11
52 Vermont 3

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,800
2 New York 1,676
3 Massachusetts 1,326
4 Connecticut 1,254
5 Louisiana 1,100
6 Rhode Island 999
7 Mississippi 868
8 District of Columbia 865
9 Arizona 717
10 Michigan 682
11 Illinois 665
12 Maryland 629
13 Delaware 625
14 Pennsylvania 614
15 South Carolina 565
16 Georgia 558
17 Florida 554
18 Indiana 502
19 Texas 477
20 Alabama 464
21 Nevada 452
22 New Mexico 384
23 Iowa 375
24 Ohio 367
25 California 350
26 Colorado 343
27 Minnesota 339
28 New Hampshire 318
29 Virginia 314
30 Arkansas 303
31 Missouri 283
32 North Carolina 280
33 Tennessee 274
34 Washington 268
35 Kentucky 232
36 Idaho 218
37 Nebraska 216
38 Oklahoma 215
39 North Dakota 209
40 Wisconsin 202
41 South Dakota 195
42 Kansas 166
43 Puerto Rico 150
44 West Virginia 139
45 Utah 132
46 Oregon 116
47 Montana 111
48 Maine 99
49 Vermont 92
50 Wyoming 72
51 Hawaii 61
52 Alaska 53

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Louisiana 5
2 Arkansas 3
3 Georgia 2
4 Iowa 2
5 South Carolina 2
6 Texas 2
7 California 1
8 Florida 1
9 Massachusetts 1
10 Mississippi 1
11 New Mexico 1
12 Ohio 1
13 Puerto Rico 1
14 Rhode Island 1
15 Tennessee 1
16 West Virginia 1
17 Alabama 0
18 Alaska 0
19 Arizona 0
20 Colorado 0
21 Connecticut 0
22 Delaware 0
23 District of Columbia 0
24 Hawaii 0
25 Idaho 0
26 Illinois 0
27 Indiana 0
28 Kansas 0
29 Kentucky 0
30 Maine 0
31 Maryland 0
32 Michigan 0
33 Minnesota 0
34 Missouri 0
35 Montana 0
36 Nebraska 0
37 Nevada 0
38 New Hampshire 0
39 New Jersey 0
40 New York 0
41 North Carolina 0
42 North Dakota 0
43 Oklahoma 0
44 Oregon 0
45 Pennsylvania 0
46 South Dakota 0
47 Utah 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Virginia 0
50 Washington 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 144,364 1 99
Lafayette Florida 144,028 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 135,673 3 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 131,934 4 99
Lake Tennessee 120,867 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 38,648 168 94
Richland South Carolina 29,815 336 89
York South Carolina 16,197 1059 66
Orange California 16,065 1073 65
Pierce Washington 8,731 1940 38

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,612 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,412 2 99
Randolph Georgia 3,983 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,634 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 3,554 5 99
Richland South Carolina 491 704 77
Davidson Tennessee 385 920 70
Orange California 333 1047 66
Pierce Washington 215 1421 54
York South Carolina 196 1504 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons